Veteran pollster, Nate Silver expressed optimism for Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign following the release of a recent Marist poll, just days before the election. Silver, founder of ABC’s 538, highlighted the significance of Harris’s leads in key “blue wall” states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—that flipped back to President Biden after supporting Trump in 2016.
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On social media platform X, Silver remarked that the polling data indicates the race remains competitive.
He noted, “Reassuring polls for Harris in the sense that the race is likely to remain toss-up-ish,” while cautioning that the final NYT/Siena state polls could still shift the landscape.
The Marist poll shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points in Michigan and 2 points in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, a positive change from earlier September figures.
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In his Silver Bulletin on Substack, Silver suggested that Harris has a slight edge in these critical swing states, with his polling index indicating a national lead of 1.1 points over Trump.
Specifically, he found Harris ahead in Michigan by 1.2 points and Wisconsin by 0.8 points. “Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know,” he stated, acknowledging the unpredictability of the race.
As Election Day approaches, The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index reflects a tight national contest, with Harris at 48.2 percent and Trump at 47.9 percent.
