… Over 70 million Americans have voted
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A recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll indicates that Kamala Harris has taken the lead over Donald Trump in Iowa, a state he previously secured in the last two presidential elections.
Harris is now favored by 47% of likely voters, compared to Trump’s 44%.
This shift comes as a surprise, given Iowa’s recent trend towards the Republican Party, which has seen Trump achieve solid victories in both 2016 and 2020.
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Notably, the poll reveals that Harris has gained significant support from women, especially older and independent voters, which is driving her late surge.
Trump maintains strong backing from his traditional supporters, including men, evangelicals, rural voters, and individuals without college degrees.
However, Harris’s rise marks a significant turn for Democrats in a state that many had considered a guaranteed win for Trump.
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Pollster J. Ann Selzer noted, “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
This poll follows a September survey where Trump held a 4-point lead over Harris, and earlier in June, he had an 18-point advantage over Joe Biden.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is still on the Iowa ballot despite abandoning his independent campaign for Trump, garners 3% of the vote—down from 6% in September.
Support for Libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver stands below 1%, with a few voters undecided or withholding their choices.
The poll, conducted from October 28-31 with a sample of 808 likely voters, has a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.
Despite both candidates focusing their campaigns on key battleground states, they have not actively campaigned in Iowa since the primaries concluded.
Harris’s support from women is particularly strong, leading Trump by 20 points among female voters.
Independent voters are also shifting towards Harris, with independent women backing her by a 28-point margin.
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This demographic was crucial in the lead-up to the election, as independents had consistently supported Trump previously.
Senior voters are also showing support for Harris, especially among women aged 65 and older, who favor her by a significant margin of 63% to 28%.
Linda Marshall, a 79-year-old voter, articulated her reasons for supporting Harris, emphasizing issues related to reproductive rights and democracy.
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While Harris’s overall support among voters under 35 shows a slight lead, the poll suggests that older voters—who tend to vote more reliably—could play a crucial role in her potential success.
Conversely, Trump retains a higher enthusiasm rate among his supporters, with 76% expressing strong enthusiasm compared to 71% for Harris.
Nonetheless, both candidates have a large percentage of committed supporters, with 91% of likely voters reporting their decision is made.
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The issues motivating voters reveal stark differences: Trump’s supporters prioritize inflation and the economy, while Harris’s base is more focused on the future of democracy and reproductive rights.
