The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2025 to 3.0%, attributing the downgrade to declining global oil prices.
This updated forecast is outlined in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), which was released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, DC.
The revised estimate marks a 0.2 percentage point drop from the Fund’s earlier forecast of 3.2% for the same year.
According to the report: “For sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to decline slightly from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, before recovering modestly to 4.2% in 2026.
“Among the larger economies, the growth forecast for Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, owing to lower oil prices.”
Other leading African economies are also facing similar downgrades due to a combination of economic headwinds.
The IMF highlighted “In South Africa, the growth forecast is revised downward by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, reflecting slowing momentum from a weaker-than-expected 2024 performance, deteriorating sentiment due to heightened uncertainty, intensification of protectionist policies, and a deeper slowdown in major economies.”
The report also delivered a sharp revision for South Sudan, citing ongoing disruptions in oil production “South Sudan has a downward revision of 31.5 percentage points for 2025 due to delays in resuming oil production following damage to a key pipeline.”
