Kamala Harris has widened her lead over Donald Trump in the race for the U.S. presidency, according to the latest polling averages, although the two candidates remain close in many key battleground states.
The Guardian’s most recent poll tracker, compiled from various surveys over a 10-day period, shows Harris, the Democratic nominee and current vice president, with 48.2% support, while Trump, the Republican nominee and former president, trails at 44.4%.
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This gives Harris a 3.8-point advantage, up by one point from the previous week and consistent with most, though not all, recent polls.
To provide additional context, the polling site 538 (Five Thirty Eight) reported Harris with a 2.9-point lead on Friday, a slightly smaller margin than The Guardian’s but still within range.
According to 538’s calculations, Harris has a 58% chance of winning the election in November, compared to 42% for Trump.
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While national polls are useful, the outcome of the election will likely be determined by results in key swing states due to America’s electoral college system.
Despite this, Harris’s national lead, even if modest, could prove significant.
Historical polling trends suggest that Harris has a strong chance of winning the popular vote, as Democratic candidates have triumphed in five of the last six presidential elections of the 21st century.
However, Republicans managed to secure victory in two of those elections, despite losing the popular vote.
One notable example was the 2000 election, when George W. Bush won the presidency after a controversial legal battle over the Florida results, despite Al Gore winning the nationwide popular vote by around 540,000 ballots.
